Renovation priorities are usually set by what bothers you most, which is reasonable. Two cost movements this year make a different order worth considering.
The two movements
Energy is rising sharply. Dutch TTF futures, Europe’s main gas benchmark, have climbed roughly 120% since the start of 2026, and winter forecasts are moving toward an average near €60/MWh from €45/MWh, with some analysis suggesting over €100/MWh may be needed to pull LNG from Asia.
Renovation materials remain elevated. Costs run above pre-2020 levels due to supply-chain pressure and tariffs, with lumber, roofing and imported tile up significantly, roofing tariffs from 10% to 60%, and cabinets, steel and appliances exposed.
Toronto renovation costs run $280–$400 per square foot, with older-home gut jobs at $450–$550+. Kitchens run $20,000 to $150,000+.
Why insulation moves up the list
Insulation and air sealing are among the least tariff-exposed categories in a renovation. They are also the only category whose return grows when energy prices rise.
A kitchen delivers daily satisfaction and no operating saving. Insulation delivers no visible change and a saving that scales with the price of heat — which is currently going up.
That is not an argument against kitchens. It is an argument about sequence in a year when one category’s return has risen and the other’s cost has.
The practical order
1. Air sealing. Cheapest, fastest, and usually the largest single improvement in an older house. Draughts move more heat than most people assume.
2. Attic insulation. Heat rises; this is where it leaves. Straightforward and relatively inexpensive.
3. Windows, if genuinely failing. Expensive per unit of heat saved. Worth doing when they need replacing anyway, rarely worth doing for energy alone.
4. Heating system. Only after the envelope is addressed — otherwise you size and pay for equipment to heat a house that leaks.
5. Kitchens and bathrooms. When you want them.
The scheduling advantage
Insulation work is also easier to schedule. It does not require the cabinet, appliance and tile selections that carry tariff exposure and long lead times, and it does not make a kitchen unusable for six weeks.
Remember the costs outside the quote: in Ontario, 13% HST applies to labour and materials — over $52,000 on a $400,000 project — and permits run $400 to $2,000+.
An older home that is expensive to heat becomes more expensive to heat this winter. That is the argument for doing the invisible work first, and it is stronger this year than last.
Sources
- Euronews — Europe’s gas prices have doubled
- Maserat Developments — Home Renovation Costs Toronto 2026
- HomeStars — Renovation Costs Toronto 2026